I had a friend recently ask my perspective on the current state of these mRNA vaccines and the boosters. I realized it’s not a 30-second response, it nuanced and complicated.
I am shocked by the lack of plain and simple information on the pro’s & con’s in weighing options for COVID-19 mRNA vaccines and their boosters. Additionally we are dealing with a changing situation that has evolved a lot over the last year, where the mRNA vaccines were advertised as 95% effective at preventing COVID-19 in Nov. 2020, which 1 year later is completely false. We have numerous variants changing the overall efficacy and finally the seemingly less lethal omicron COVID-19 variant has emerged as the predominant strain in most regions. It would appear we are to the point where a booster might grant you two months protection, although as best I have researched I do not believe the available mRNA vaccines are effective against the less lethal Omicron variant.
This is my attempt at making a rather complex topic, a bit simpler to digest. Instead of promoting fear, this is my attempt to look at this with rational critical thinking.
High-Level Important Questions Things to Consider on Risk & Benefit analysis.
Is herd immunity achievable with the present mRNA vaccine strategy?
What is the Infection Fatality Rate for my age Group? (according to the CDC)?
Are there potential treatments, that might reduce risk for severe COVID-19?
What are the potential side effects from the vaccines?
What is the protection period for taking these mRNA vaccines?
Are all variants protected against the mRNA vaccines?
What about natural immunity?
Data Conjecture On Efficacy
All Cause Mortality 2020 vs 2021 with a supposed 95% effective mRNA vaccine
What is up with all these CDC excess deaths in 2021, excluding COVID-19 Deaths??
What is Informed Consent? - Nuremberg Code 10 Points
Why is the UK Dropping All COVID-19, Restrictions, Passports and Mandates?
Conclusion?
Is herd immunity achievable with the present mRNA vaccine strategy?
The short answer, as long as these mRNA vaccines are not effective at preventing transmission, in which case herd immunity is impossible to achieve via these vaccines. People that encounter COVID-19, post vaccination can still transmit the virus. The mRNA vaccines are absolutely not effective at preventing COVID-19. There is a chance that natural immunity, might afford better protection, granting some level of natural herd immunity, I will discuss more later in this post.
Here is my point, getting the shot, will not prevent transmission, therefore by you getting the mRNA vaccine you will not help reduce transmission to your family, friends or the elderly. Hence you should not believe the false premise, or let anyone talk you into taking the mRNA vaccine or its boosters, because it will protect others, because that is flatly false.
Why is that important? You can now simply answer the question of will this mRNA vaccine benefit me, given my age group. (see below)
What is the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for my age Group? (according to the CDC)?
Observation: If the CDC has some honor the answer on whether a person should consider the vaccine should vary depending each persons age group. This estimate is by the CDC and is normalized per 100,000 so imagine a city of 100,000 near you when you read these stats.
CDC Infection Fatality Table Feb 2020 to Sept 2021: Estimated rates of COVID-19 disease outcomes per 100,000, by age group
Important! Take a few minutes to internalize the data, especially at each age group and think about how you would recommend your parent, grand-parents, kids, & young adults.
Keep in mind these mRNA are not effective at preventing “transmission”.
Please Note: This Data (above) is prior to the Omicron surge, in which case the infection transmission is way up, but the deaths are down in comparison, so the IFR will be much, much lower on the next CDC data release, I am guessing perhaps 5x to 10x lower IFR on all age groups, post Omicron surge.
Are there potential treatments, that might reduce risk for severe COVID-19?
I had family members come down with COVID-19, and the general recommendation was to go home, wait for O2 levels to drop and then come to the hospital. I got to thinking how is it possible that with modern medicine there is not anything we can do to reduce the severity of the symptoms, even reductions of 5%, 10% or 25%, might mean the difference between life and death for some individual (especially in older age cohorts). I discovered several Dr’s that had great clinical evidence for preventives that seem to reduce severity/impact of COVID-19.
Please Note: Anything mentioned should be discussed with your personal Dr.
Example 1:
I had some very dear family members that are +65 years with some comorbidities and in early December they contracted COVID-19, and most likely the Delta variant. Their primary Dr’s initial response was to go home and wait to till they got sick enough to end-up in the hospital, completely ignoring the mounds of data about early outpatient treatment being provided by some of the most renown Dr’s in the world. I am so thankful for Dr. Mollie James, an ICU Dr whose goal is to keep them out of the ICU, and her team of Dr’s that treated my family. I would highly recommend using Dr. Mollie James and her team of online Dr’s, if you have someone 65+ that needs treatment, and your concerned about the outcome. https://jamesclinic.com
Example 2:
Did you know nearly everyone that has a severe outcome or death in COVID-19, test positive for a Vitamin D3, deficiency? That is a very interesting data point, needless to say, I have been ensuring the last 2 years, I am taking daily vitamin D3, supplements. Actually taking about 5,000 IU daily. Did you know this vitamin D deficiency has been known since May of 2020???? A recent study confirms 97% of hospitalized individuals for COVID, were Vitamin D3 deficient ?? And yes there is 158 clinical studies showing supplementing Vitamin D3 can reduce severity of COVID-19 See Research: https://vdmeta.com/
Example 3:
Various Dr’s on forefront of this virus have established various protocols for early treatment. Will it prevent you from getting COVID-19, No. However if these protocols are followed, I think you might reduce your chance of severe COVID-19 dramatically. Even if one or two have a 5%, 10%, 20% effective at reducing severity it seems like a great plan. Check out the iMASK+ protocols https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/
Example 4:
Did you know that there is a set of Dr’s that have “early” treated 7,000 patients with COVID-19, and they have had 0 deaths and 2 hospitalizations. That is stunning!! Here is there book: Overcoming the COVID-19 Darkness: How Two Doctors Successfully Treated 7000 Patients Oddly I think twitter decided to censor these Dr’s, WHAT?? With those impressive results, I think they deserve at least a good listening.
What are the potential side effects from the vaccines & boosters?
Did you know there has been over 1 million reported adverse events to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System in last 13 months specifically for these COVID-19 mRNA vaccines?
Observation: There are a lot of very concerning signals at present being ignored by the CDC. There is a vaccine adverse events database that tracks adverse events, however it is rather complicated for the average individual to interact with the data. The problem is there is no 3, 5 or even 10 year study, to see the ramifications and exactly why these are purely experimental.
An Open Source project was started to represent the the potential side-effects. You can easily see these mRNA vaccines are some of the most deadly vaccine rollouts in the history of vaccines. Whether you agree the ends justify the means, might depend on your age-group.
Important: Please remember the adverse reports are under reported by an under estimated 6x to potentially more than 10x. I will let you do your own research on what this the best multiplier. My own math leads me to believe that a 10x to 15x multiplier may be a good estimate, of missed side effects, I will cover later.
Site: https://openvaers.com/covid-data
Anecdotal story, which does not seem anecdotal when its someone I used to know personally. An adult male with two young children dies of a heart attack shortly after vaccination in his mid-40’s. I have heard numerous reports of other young adults having heart attacks shortly after vaccination within the last year.
Odd Data Example 1:
Indiana Life Insurance says non-COVID-19 deaths are up 40% and a 10% increase would have been a once in a 200 year event, according to their data and actuarial tables.
https://www.thecentersquare.com/indiana/indiana-life-insurance-ceo-says-deaths-are-up-40-among-people-ages-18-64/article_71473b12-6b1e-11ec-8641-5b2c06725e2c.html
Odd Data Example 2:
I stumbled upon a list of over 290+ athletes that have had some sort of cardiac event in last 12 months, an estimated 20x increase. Causation does not mean correlation, but I am very suspicious. Read each account, it is honestly pretty startling, young healthy, athletes in their prime are collapsing. 290+ Young Healthy Athletes Collapsing
Odd Data Example 3:
Given that herd immunity is not achievable (which I think was known last summer), given an IFR of 0%, should young adults (especially males) be taking these mRNA vaccines? - The Truth About Vaccine-induced Myocarditis
What is the protection period for taking these mRNA vaccines?
Israel has been tracking a bit of ahead of us. It was my early signal that the 95% effective at preventing COVID-19, was highly suspect back in August and when the term “breakthrough” infections started to circulate in the news cycles. The latest research after going from a 3rd booster to July/August to recommending a 4th booster Oct/Nov, that seems to indicate at present perhaps 2 months of protection, with overlap of 2 months, I think that puts booster shots about once per month, that is not sustainable, especially given there is no 5, 10 or 25 year studies on long term effects of these mRNA vaccines.
Links
Vaccination efficacy - 95%, 95%, 95% or less than 16% and waning???
12/2021 Pfizer (Waning Immunity after the BNT162b2 Vaccine in Israel)
Is the Omicron COVID-19 Variant Less Severe than previous Variants?
In short the answer is yes, the severity seems to be much milder in comparison to the Delta or the original COVID-19 (alpha) variant).
South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’
Covid: Omicron variant causing mild disease, says South African Medical Association, slams hype
Are all variants protected against the mRNA vaccines?
‘Striking’ vaccine resistance in Omicron variant: Columbia University
A new study out of Columbia University says the Omicron variant is “markedly resistant” to vaccines and boosters might not do much to help, spelling bad news for the country as Omicron spreads and COVID-19 cases rise nationally.
https://nypost.com/2021/12/16/columbia-university-finds-omicron-vaccine-resistance/
Additionally the Omicron variants mutation appears to be vaccine resistent according to research in nature.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w
What about natural immunity?
There has been numerous studies showing that natural immunity is affording somewhere between 13x to 20x better protection for those people that get COVID-19 and survive. I have read a few studies that suggest the mRNA vaccines might wipe away some of your natural immunity protection. Please see my write-up from Sept. on Study: Natural Immunity & Previous Coronavirus Exposure
Data Conjecture On Efficacy
Take a look at wave July 2020 to Feb 2021
Now imagine a 95% effective vaccine deployed against 74% of the population and mostly people +65 …
Take a look at July 2021 until Nov 2021
3,250 is to 230,000 as 2,000 is to 167,000
1.4% vs 1.1% does not look to me like a 95% effective vaccine, this looks like perhaps a 20% effective vaccine (and waning) at preventing death.
All Cause Mortality 2020 vs 2021 with a supposed 95% effective mRNA vaccine
I do not see how it is possible that in 2021, we would have more excess deaths than 2020, given that by 2nd half of 2021 +80% of people 50+ received the vaccine, in the population that is most susceptible to death from COVID. Please see my write-up 2020 & 2021 All Cause Mortality
What is up with all these CDC excess deaths in 2021, excluding COVID-19 Deaths??
The Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) put the United States estimated COVID-19 mRNA vaccine deaths at 9,778 as of 12/31/2021, but whilst the COVID-19 testing appartus is fully online, the CDC data indicates (with 6 weeks of data yet to process) that perhaps 57,000 to maybe 138,000 people have died in 2021 (but not due to COVID-19) ???
My Write Up: Perplexing CDC Data on Excess Deaths in 2021
What is Informed Consent? - Nuremberg Code 10 Points
I think it might be healthy to look at this question in context, of shortly after WWII, the Nuremberg Code was created due to the mistreatment of primarily the Jewish people by the Nazi party in Germany.
“The Nuremberg Code (German: Nürnberger Kodex) is a set of research ethics principles for human experimentation created by the U.S. v Brandt court as one result of the Nuremberg trials at the end of the Second World War. In a review written on the 50th anniversary of the Brandt verdict, Katz writes that "a careful reading of the judgment suggests that [the authors] wrote the Code for the practice of human experimentation whenever it is being conducted."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Code
Nuremberg Code - 10 Points
Point 1: “The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential. This means that the person involved should have legal capacity to give consent; should be so situated as to be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, deceit, duress, overreaching, or other ulterior form of constraint or coercion; and should have sufficient knowledge and comprehension of the elements of the subject matter involved as to enable him to make an understanding and enlightened decision. This latter element requires that before the acceptance of an affirmative decision by the experimental subject there should be made known to him the nature, duration, and purpose of the experiment; the method and means by which it is to be conducted; all inconveniences and hazards reasonably to be expected; and the effects upon his health or person which may possibly come from his participation in the experiment. The duty and responsibility for ascertaining the quality of the consent rests upon each individual who initiates, directs, or engages in the experiment. It is a personal duty and responsibility which may not be delegated to another with impunity”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Code#The_ten_points_of_the_Nuremberg_Code
Why is the UK dropping all restrictions (as of 1/21/2022)?
If you recall, back in August, I indicated that the CDC data is lacking totally in tracking breakthrough infections, as of May of 2021, they failed us. So we had to find alternate data sources to track for those of us with data driven curiosity. Some of the best countries for tracking, is actually UK & Israel. The data within the UK out of Scotland this week of 1/20/2022, is frankly stunning, even the age-standardized (per 100,000) is looking really bad for the vaccine in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
Just FYI, there is two types of data what I call active data (if I were to walk into any hospital today) and standardized data (which is typically per 100,000) and shows based on sampling size. In my opinion both data points relevant, especially given a claim that these experimental mRNA vaccines were 95% effective at preventing COVID-19. Also in my opinion if you accepted, 1 dose, 2 dose or 3 doses of into your life, your either partially vaccinated or fully vaccinated, but not unvaccinated when the new recommendation is fully vaccinated, hence i want to see a column for “partially” vaccinated, inclusive of all 3 (or 4) doses.
Data From Scotland:
https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/11223/22-01-19-covid19-winter_publication_report.pdf
In Scotland despite being 89% +18 vaccinated and 85% 12+ and older …
And if you want to read some recent interesting data driven insights into the UK total Data of Active/Standardized - See this Substack. Unboostered Brits Infected and Dying at Higher Rates than Unvaccinated.
Conclusion
Given all the above information, I think each age group and person should use critical thinking to make a decision with “informed consent” on whether to proceed with vaccination or even boosters given the following criteria.
No herd immunity protection
Given the Age-based IFR risk published from the CDC (prior to Omicron)
Potential mRNA Vaccine Adverse Events (including death)
Potential early treatment (reducing severity and risk)
Waning efficacy and Additional Risk
No Long term (3, 5 or 10 year) studies on the side effects for mRNA vaccines
Given all the above information:
I personally see no benefit in the Risk vs Benefit for the age group 0-17. - it’s pretty much no way in hell, keep your hands off my children.
I personally see no benefit in the 18 to 49 age group.
I personally see extremely limited value in the 50 to 65 age group with a .5% fatality rate per 100,000, unless I had multiple comorbidities.
Given the Risk + Benefit, for this particular age group 65+ it is a tough call, given a 17% chance of hospitalization per 100,000, and 4% death rate per 100,000 (prior to Omicron). I am not going to fault anyone in this bracket using the experimental mRNA vaccines. Its a tough call to discuss with your health care provider.