Vaccination efficacy - 95%, 95%, 95% or less than 16% and waning???

Breakthrough Cases Are Exploding and there is no CDC data to support it???

Does anyone else feel like they are presently living in the Matrix??? I keep hearing the blatantly false mantra being echoed by all major news channels in my head 95%, 95%, 95%.

Please, if you can take 20 minutes, read through and consider the questions being explored and the data being presented.

I confess, I am a data guy. I have checked the stats weekly from the beginning of COVID, even before the pandemic was common knowledge, starting back in January of 2020. I always like data to support my thoughts and ideas. As a matter of fact, I would estimate I have read nearly 250 articles and medical journal studies per week since the pandemic began from reputable news sources. This is the recent data I have gathered and compiled - I think you will be stunned where the data leads.

+70% Breakthrough infections of active COVID-19 cases for the 2-dose fully vaccinated population in Israel as of Friday 9/3/2020

Wow, I am stunned because I have to say the data (and lack of data) from various recent articles and studies in medical journals are very alarming!!

My Journey to Studying the Recent Data

I recall only back in Nov. 2020, the advertised efficacy (effectiveness) of the mRNA vaccines more commonly known as Moderna and Pfizer were 94% and 95% respectively effective at preventing COVID-19, then to my surprise in late July, I heard the common narrative change, “well the vaccines are 95% at preventing severe cases”. Shortly thereafter the term breakthrough cases emerged from numerous news articles, and they were always qualified extremely rare??? Breakthrough cases is the term loosely implying symptomatic spread of COVID-19 among the vaccinated. Something changed, so I started sleuthing numerous research papers and articles to understand what is happening … this is my discovery.

Overview:

The mRNA vaccines are waning, in fact the pfizer vaccine (recently approved by the FDA) is extremely likely to have less than a 16% efficacy in the United States today and worse yet there is no broad CDC/FDA data to support it. How can a vaccine with less than 16% efficacy after approximately 6 months, have recently gotten FDA approval? I would surmise it is the lack of CDC data generating really, really bad policy decisions at a critical time in the COVID-19 crisis. In the midst of this waning vaccine efficacy the COVID-19 variant is causing 251 times the viral load in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated, and so its spreading like wildfire. This is a pretty bleak picture, is there any hope? Yes, our natural God given immunity is doing fantastically well and the FDA estimates in May, before the Delta variant, that over 120 million of an estimated 333 million population in the United States have already been infected with COVID-19. In the end you’re probably going to get COVID-19 regardless if you have the vaccine or not. We have all read or seen the general news media is generating all these fear based, horrible stories showing everyone dying. However the truth is your natural immunity is very robust and holding up much better than vaccine immunity. Lastly, in looking at the estimated Infection Fatality Rate by the CDC over the last year, you will notice deaths are extremely low for most age groups.

Key Points

  • CDC has failed us in regards to vaccinated breakthrough data.

  • mRNA Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are waning

  • mRNA vaccines in Israel show less than 16% efficacy in July

  • 59% of hospitalizations in Israel are fully vaccinated - Science Mag. 8/15/2021

  • The United States, based on some data is likely at the same point with especially Pfizer being less than 16% efficacy in Sept.

  • Natural Immunity is doing Excellent

The Details and the Data …

Where is the CDC vaccination data on breakthrough COVID-19 cases?

The CDC tried to track all COVID-19 vaccine related breakthrough cases for the mild and severe vaccinated cases. To put it simply, the CDC failed. Even with millions, if not billions of your tax payer dollars at their disposal. I would like to know how can the FDA, make approval decisions about efficacy, on a Pfizer vaccine with no data? See Politco: Holes in reporting of breakthrough Covid cases hamper CDC response . The simple answer, there is no broad data set to support any policy decisions for any of the federal agencies or the federal government. How can the federal government make any policy decisions about vaccine efficacy, FDA approval, booster shots or even vaccination mandates? The simple answer they are flying blind and shooting from the hip. I guess perhaps a second source is warranted, give the epic failure at the CDC. Way, Way back on 7/30 a Bloomberg article came to the same conclusions, the CDC has failed us and Bloomberg was able to establish over 100,000 vaccinated break though cases. Bloomberg 7/30: CDC Scaled Back Hunt for Breakthrough Cases Just as the Delta Variant Grew​​​​​​

Bold Claims Whilst Breakthrough Cases Are Exploding

As a data guy, I am making pretty bold claims given the CDC has no broad data-sets. Unfortunately we have to look to alternate data sources to ascertain the situation.

First, we need to establish the now false claims that these vaccines have a 94% and 95% at preventing COVID-19.

These statements in retrospective are completely false today. Maybe that is why we need to not rush vaccine development without extended clinical trials?

I have established that we have no broad spectrum data readily available in United States, given the CDC’s failure to track breakthrough cases back in May, so how can I make the claim that Pfizer is extremely likely to have less than a 16% efficacy in the United States today. When no local data sources are readily available, you have to look at the data results in other countries (data) set and infer things based on their timeline. Fortunately, Israel has excellent data tracking, and thus a lot can be inferred.

Israel Facts

Some people are saying, “Ok, you have proven that the 95% efficacy in preventing COVID-19 is not accurate but we have now heard the vaccines are 95% effective in preventing severe infections, so these are probably all asymptomatic”.

Lets perhaps agree, that severe cases may require hospitalization. Based on that, on 8/15/2021, science.com published a study on Israel hospitalizations, 59% were fully vaccinated … Wait? What??? I thought 95% efficacy at preventing, or I mean preventing severe infection. According to studies published by Science Magazine, let me repeat 59% of hospitalizations in Israel are fully vaccinated on 8/15/2021 A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

That data probably got your full attention. Is the vaccine waning or is the COVID-19 Delta variant just bypassing the vaccine protection? According to an England public health study, Pfizer is 88% effective against the Delta variant, but then in another study on the same article it shows that the fully vaccinated had 40.5% efficacy on average in July. If you look closer the study also shows that people fully vaccinated in January had only 16% efficacy in July, where-as people that were fully vaccinated in April had 78% efficacy. Again, this cannot be derived from CDC data, because they have failed us. CNBC 8/10/2021: (Israel) Fully vaccinated people are still getting infected with Covid. Experts explain why This appears to be more of a waning to me based on the data, but the Delta variant might also be a lot more potent.

You may say, “Things do sound a-bit grim in Israel, but why would I think that would happen in the United States? If it were starting to happen wouldn’t the CDC be telling us?” Please go back to Point 1 - The CDC has failed us.

Earlier I predicted that it is extremely likely the Pfizer vaccine has less than a 16% efficacy here in United States in September 2021.

Lets read through more localized data including counties and individual states to get the real picture.

Lets start with some county data and perhaps look at recent data from a few states.

Teton County in Jackson Hole WY - 8/31/2021
“With over 70% of Jackson Hole residents vaccinated, Teton County Director of Health Jodie Pond told the Teton District Board of Health on Friday and the Teton County Board of County Commissioners on Monday that a significant number of breakthrough cases — infections among vaccinated people — are to be expected. Data from the county Health Department show breakthrough cases currently account for 58.4% of all active COVID-19 cases. - 8/31/2021 Jackson Hole News & Guide Vaccinated accounted for 58% of COVID-19 cases in Teton County

State of Minnesota - 30% breakthrough of active cases of vaccinated- 8/30/2021
“In the weeks before June, fewer than 10% of new COVID-19 infections in the state occurred in fully vaccinated individuals. However, the figures rose to 30% in the first four weeks of August.” - 8/30/2021 International Business Times 80 Fully Vaccinated People Die Of COVID-19 In Minnesota; 12,559 Breakthrough Cases Recorded

State of Massachusetts - 39.3% breakthrough of active case of vaccinated - 8/31/2021
“Massachusetts public health officials reported 3,704 new COVID-19 breakthrough cases in fully vaccinated individuals in the past week, data from the Department of Public Health shows. … During the same time period between Aug. 21 and 28, the state reported 9,409 new COVID-19 cases among the state's whole population.” WCVB: Massachusetts reports 3,704 new breakthrough COVID-19 cases in 4.48 million vaccinated individuals

Perhaps these are all anomalies. Maybe we can get some more concise information from a reputable institution. How about the Mayo Clinic? They published a study of vaccine efficacy from January to July. This is a bit technical but I am just going to give you the raw information from the study …

Mayo Clinic Study - 8/6/2021
“Here we compare the effectiveness of two full-length Spike protein-encoding mRNA vaccines from Moderna (mRNA-1273) and Pfizer/BioNTech (BNT162b2) in the Mayo Clinic Health System over time from January to July 2021, during which either the Alpha or Delta variant was highly prevalent. ….. Both vaccines were highly effective during this study period against SARS-CoV-2 infection (mRNA-1273: 86%, 95%CI: 81-90.6%; BNT162b2: 76%, 95%CI: 69-81%) and COVID-19 associated hospitalization (mRNA-1273: 91.6%, 95% CI: 81-97%; BNT162b2: 85%, 95% CI: 73-93%). However, in July, the effectiveness against infection was considerably lower for mRNA-1273 (76%, 95% CI: 58-87%) with an even more pronounced reduction in effectiveness for BNT162b2 (42%, 95% CI: 13-62%). … Notably, the Delta variant prevalence in Minnesota increased from 0.7% in May to over 70% in July whereas the Alpha variant prevalence decreased from 85% to 13% over the same time period. … In Florida, which is currently experiencing its largest COVID-19 surge to date, the risk of infection in July after full vaccination with mRNA-1273 was about 60% lower than after full vaccination with BNT162b2 (IRR: 0.39, 95% CI: 0.24-0.62) ”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1.full

Since this Mayo Clinic study only shows Moderna at 76% efficacy in July and Pfizer 42% in July. We saw in the Israel data they were showing 40% efficacy in July. We can infer that just like in Israel, where Pfizer is used primarily, the United States is likely similar efficacy of 16% for the Pfizer vaccine in August and therefore it is extremely likely given the waning nature the Pfizer vaccine has less than a 16% efficacy today(early Sept. 2021). Of course due to the failure and incompetence at the CDC we have limited information with no broad data set to support this conjecture.

At this point, the increase in cases and break through cases is partly due to the waning vaccines and partly due to the increase in how fast the Delta variant spreads. There is a small study, that indicates the Delta strain contains 251 times the viral load of all previous strains, effecting both the vaccinated breakthrough cases and unvaccinated cases. 8/10/2021 - Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Among Vaccinated Healthcare Workers, Vietnam

Next you think, “What is the deal with these vaccines, who would ever let these get distributed to the mass populations?”

Please see all links in the Q&A section at the very bottom of this Post

  • Perhaps the vaccines are suppressing our T cell immunity.

  • Perhaps our natural immune system is no longer recognizing the infection due to mutation.

  • Perhaps leaky vaccines are causing the worst variants to get propagated.

  • Perhaps the vaccines may prevent the original strain, but when you experience another in wild type it bypasses your immune system.

  • Perhaps the vaccines are causing Antibody-Dependent Enhancement (ADE) which is raising antibodies that don't protect, but actually make a viral infection even worse

  • Perhaps the vaccines are causing Original antigenic sin.
    Orginal antigenic sin refers to the propensity of the body's immune system to preferentially utilize immunological memory based on a previous infection when a second slightly different version of that foreign pathogen (e.g. a virus or bacterium) is encountered. This leaves the immune system "trapped" by the first response it has made to each antigen, and unable to mount potentially more effective responses during subsequent infections. “

I am not sure we will fully know for a few years, the full impact of this global mass vaccination (gene therapy) program and its short or longer term effects. Despite billions of people taking these vaccinations (gene therapy) there is no clinical studies to even establish 1 years worth of data, that is alarming.

You say, “What should I do about these 3rd and 4th boosters”? I will say if I were vaccinated for COVID-19 I would have a three strikes and your out policy. 95% effective at preventing infection. False. 95% effective a preventing severe outcomes. False. 95% effective at preventing death. False. You know the adage, Screw me once shame on you, screw me twice shame on me …

Recap, we have shown definitively that the 2-dose vaccines are failing, in Israel and in the United States. Whether waning efficacy of both vaccines or an increase in the transmissions of the Delta variant … this is really a pretty bleak picture.

There is actually a lot of hope! Our God given natural immunity is holding up fantastically well and over one-third of the country has already had COVID-19.

Natural Immunity, is granted when person whom was previously infected with COVID-19 survives the virus. A study in Israel showing the results of vaccination vs natural immunity (previous infection) is holding up amazingly well. In the study it shows natural immunity provides up to 13 times the protection preventing reinfection when compared to the vaccinated groups. More importantly, natural immunity has a 13-fold increase over vaccination in preventing hospitalization. Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine—but vaccination remains vital - Science.org - 8/26/2021

As matter of fact people that got the original SARS-COV-1, 17 years later they are still immune to SARS-COV-2 (aka COVID-19). Some may remember the Coronavirus outbreak back in 2003 in China, more commonly known as SARS. These individuals that survived the SARS outbreak are all showing that their God given natural immunity is resistant today 17 years later to SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19). It would appear the T Cell immunity provides better long term protection to viruses than even antibodies generated by mRNA vaccines. August 2020 - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32668444/

Our God given natural immunity is actually quite stunning!! Interestingly, another study published in Science magazine illuminates some stunning information in postulating perhaps why some people have asymptomatic responses, more like a common cold and some people have a more severe response. Basically if you had any of these five coronavirus (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-HKU1) common colds in the past few years, you are probably granted T Cell natural immunity projection against COVID-19. This study suggest perhaps up to 50% of people have had one of these five coronaviruses that grant them some level of T cell natural immunity. Oct. 2020 - Selective and cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes in unexposed humans Wouldn’t it be nice to go take a quick test and see if you have had one of these coronaviruses?

A final question, “How many people in America have natural immunity”? This can only be estimated, especially due to the amount of asymptomatic spread, and thus the data will never yield an accurate number. I hate to do it because I no longer trust the CDC to be competent, but given the urgency of the situation and the complex math, we should let the CDC give us some ballpark idea. In America we have an estimated 333 million people, the CDC estimates up until May of 2021 120 million people have had COVID-19 or 36% in the United States.

Given the above information that Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are waning. With a month to month decay of efficacy, it is extremely likely that Pfizer has less than a 16% efficacy in September.

The CDC estimated up until May, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) percent based on a city roughly the size of Rochester, MN (city of 100,000) is very low. At present (before the Delta variant) the percent of Infection Fatalities below age 50 (are extremely low).

Summary:

Yes, the CDC has failed. Yes, the mRNA vaccines are waning against the Delta variant. Yes, the efficacy of the mRNA indicates the vaccines are a failure. Yes, the COVID-19 is probably going to infect everyone on the planet. However there is hope. Given the infection fatality rate your odds of surviving COVID-19 are very good. Your natural immunity may already offer some protection for up to 50% of you. Lastly, once you have been infected your God given natural immunity is robust and will likely protect you for years to come.

Hopefully this article, will be your first step in unplugging from the Matrix.

Future Article: Sure would be nice if there was some data on treatments and/or therapeutics, that might help reduce severity. Guess, what there is some data to support some very good preventive actions and treatments for when you get the COVID-19 infection.

Questions/Thoughts:

  1. Will herd immunity ever be achieved through vaccination? Unequivocally no way in hell, based on the preponderance of evidence.

  2. According to the CDC given that low of an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) with children .001% with potential side effects. Why the HELL would the CDC/FDA ever promote or even recommended mandatory vaccinations for children???????

  3. If you are under 50 and you want to take it, go for it!!! I personally think an IFR of .57% (before Delta) is not worth the risk of side-effects, but you can make your own data driven decision. To me it is plain to see the CDC/NIH/FDA are no longer making data driven decisions and thinking of you the individual, your personal risks and personal liberty. I have to ask myself are decisions in this pandemic being made with real science, or are decisions being made from political science spectrum???

  4. How is the FDA making vaccine approval decisions based on efficacy with limited to zero broad data-sets coming from the CDC? This sounds more like political science and not real science. From my perspective, a vaccine that cannot even make it 4 to 6 months should be pulled from the shelves and flushed down the toilet.

  5. How can COVID-19 policies enacted this summer across states and even private companies, based on faulty (or non-existent data) be made, like vaccination mandates, FDA approvals or booster shots. These all need to be immediately rescinded and the states, private companies need to apologize to people for forcibly taking away their liberty on faulty data.

  6. Can we trust these institutions, like the CDC, the FDA and the NIH when they have failed us time and time again? I am starting to question the competence of the people leading these agencies. It appears very little of these agencies decisions are any longer based on you the individual and real science, but instead political science and special interest $$$$$$$$$$$$. It would appear the the CDC/NIH/FDA have decided the only answer is vaccines and that has apparently failed really really badly, when they could have taken a multi-pronged including treatment, preventives approach with billions of dollars at their disposal. I see this as a major failure of these institutions.

  7. Could these leaky vaccines be exasperating the problem? We have some data on leaky vaccines in animals, that have demonstrated leaky vaccines cause the most viral and the most severe strains to emerge. These “leaky” vaccines in animals have very, very similar characteristics to what we are seeing with the mRNA vaccines. I have seen one study, that shows at least at present the vaccines have suppressed certain T cells and I hope the science shows them returning shortly. 7/27/2015 - This chicken vaccine makes its virus more dangerous.

  8. What is the deal with these vaccines, who would ever let these get distributed to the mass populations?

    • Perhaps the vaccines are suppressing our T cell immunity.

    • Perhaps our natural immune system is no longer recognizing the infection due to mutation.

    • Perhaps leaky vaccines are causing the worst variants to get propagated.

    • Perhaps the vaccines may prevent the original strain, but when you experience another in wild type it bypasses your immune system.

    • Perhaps the vaccines are causing Antibody-Dependent Enhancement (ADE) which is raising antibodies that don't protect, but actually make a viral infection even worse.

    • Perhaps the vaccines are causing Original antigenic sin. “
      Orginal antigenic sin refers to the propensity of the body's immune system to preferentially utilize immunological memory based on a previous infection when a second slightly different version of that foreign pathogen (e.g. a virus or bacterium) is encountered. This leaves the immune system "trapped" by the first response it has made to each antigen, and unable to mount potentially more effective responses during subsequent infections. “

    Vaccination Research Articles: